Heat pump vs. propane
Which costs less to run, heat pump or propane? Pick your state; the calculator uses this week's EIA prices and shows both fuels as dollars per million BTU of heat delivered.
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Prices and efficiencies used (edit to match your bill)
| Fuel and system | Price | Efficiency | BTU per unit |
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When the answer flips
Propane is where heat pumps make the easiest case. A gallon of propane holds a third less energy than a gallon of oil, so even at the same price per gallon it delivers heat for about 50% more. At a typical $3.20 propane and 23¢ electricity, a 90% propane furnace delivers a million BTU for about $39; a cold-climate heat pump at a 2.5 seasonal coefficient delivers it for about $27. That is a 30% gap, and in rural areas where propane runs higher it widens.
The comparison only flips with cheap propane, under about $2.00 a gallon, which happens in the Midwest in good years, or with very expensive electricity. Check both numbers above against what you actually pay: propane dealer pricing varies enormously, and tank-rental customers often pay a premium over the state average.
If you heat with propane and also have no air conditioning, the heat pump conversation is usually short. Keep the propane furnace as backup for the deepest cold, let the heat pump run the rest of the year, and the fuel savings alone typically pay back a ductless system in five to eight years before any incentive.
Full method and sources on the methodology page. Compare every fuel at once in the main calculator.